New Zealand Q1 inflation leads off (official inflation data is only once a quareter from NZ)
- Due at 2245GMT
- expected 0.8% q/q, prior 0.4%
- expected 2.0% y/y, prior 1.3%
- 2% is the mid point of the RBNZ target band
- Indicators of (core) inflation have been on the up
- While the headline is (median consensus) expected to get back to 2% in today’s release the outlook for the next months is for a moderation. So while the 2% today might argue for less Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy accommodation, take it with a grain of salt, many of the factors impacting on the headline result are likely to be temporary. Still, a headline is a headline and a topside surprise should be a positive input for the NZD (and vice versa)
2350GMT – Japan – Trade balance for March, expected is Y 608.0bn, prior was Y 813.5bn
- Trade balance (adjusted): expected is Y172.0 bn, prior was Y 680.3bn
- Exports for March y/y: expected is 6.2%, prior was 11.3%
- Imports for March y/y: expected is 10.2%, prior was 1.2%
- Improvement in industrial production and exports have been a highlight of Japan’s moderately recovering economy (amidst the lowlights), while export growh is expected to have slowed a little from February a solid performance is still expected.
Also at 2350GMT from Japan – International Securities Flows for the week ended April 14
0130GMT – Australia
- RBA transactions for March. This is watched for signs of currency intervention, but there hasn’t been any so it will be of little interest
- National Australia Bank business confidence for Q1. In addition to their monthly business survey NAB produce a quarterly survey also. It’s a different survey so can show slightly different results. The monthly survey has been showing strong business conditions, its most recent result was at it the highest since January 2008.